Bruce Cameron, Black Press columnist.
The BC 2021 election will be a major battleground. Four viable parties in the province are vying for 42 seats. The CPC has 17, the Liberals 11, the NDP 11, the Greens 2 and one independent. To review the federal election from a BC perspective, Bruce Cameron will review campaign and media trends each week of the campaign.
When Justin Trudeau announced the election in August, the Liberals had a healthy lead over the Conservatives and most Canadians expected him to win another term as government.
But the turnout is constantly shifting in favor of the Conservatives, and in the middle of the campaign, the polls show that the CPC has a slight advantage over the Liberals.
Meanwhile, the fourth wave of COVID-19 is spreading to many parts of the country, especially western Canada. In British Columbia, despite a vaccination rate of 85% or more in the 50+ population, COVID-19 (and Delta Variety) is a major health challenge and a troubling political game.
Vaccine politics has been a divisive issue, especially in the 2021 conservative ranks.
The assumption that the vaccine would become a CPC wage issue, as many assumptions were made before the writ was issued, as the Liberals had imagined, did not materialize.
Vaccine skepticism (approximately 20-15-20% of the population in BC) is more likely to vote for conservatives than for the vaccinated population. The noise that disrupted Trudeau’s rallies, the hostile mobs, is the most striking example of how anti-vaccine politics and hatred of Trudeau have come together.
But will they work for or against the Liberals in the final weeks of the non-Canadian veteran and rage campaign?
According to an August survey by the Angus Red Institute, three-quarters of Canadians have little sympathy for the plight of immunizations if they contract COVID-19. By extension, perhaps less sympathy for the crowds who gathered outside hospitals in late August, shouting “freedom” and waving placards on the faces of frontline healthcare workers who risked their lives. I put and fighting the epidemic.
Ironically, most COVID-19 hospitals in Canada today are non-protective patients (in the 80-90’s) range.
Will these anti-vaccine blasts have an impact on the federal election? The answer should be yes according to the polling numbers.
Most British Columbians support the Vaccine Passport Idea, and they also give Trudeau Liberals good marks for effectively fighting the epidemic from March 2020.
Despite this broad base of support for liberal vaccine policy, they have not yet taken advantage of the idea, in part because the CPC campaign has refused to paint it as science and anti-vaccine.
The People’s Party of Canada is probably playing a key role in this: providing a safe haven on the far right for those who embrace the conspiratorial ideology of Cove 19.
Several nearby races in the Fraser Health Region, which was BC’s Coveted 19 hotspot for 2021 BC, indicate how the epidemic could still affect elections.
Fear of concluding the Covid 19 deal could lower the turnout for those who are more concerned about the disease, and since liberals and NDP supporters are much more concerned than CPC supporters. Yes, it can make a big difference in getting rid of Cloverdale-Langley City. This is where former Liberal MP John Eldog is trying to win the seat that incumbent CPC MP Tamara Johnson won in 2019 with nearly 14,400 votes.
Whoever pulls out their voters (or wins over 3,500 unaffected green voters in 2019) will win.
Trainout will also be another factor in the Fraser Valley ride, the Mission-Mitsky-Fraser Valley, where incumbent Conservative MP Broadways should feel optimistic about the recent CPC increase.
Although the Liberals won the ride in 2015 with 1,038 votes, the new Liberal candidate, Geet Grewal, was nominated only on August 19. The battle pitted the candidate from the more urban southern part of Sawari (Grewal) against a peasant community from the north as opposed to the rural candidate (Weez).
Another close contest in the Fraser Valley Health Authority area that could be judged by the turnout rate is South Surrey White Rock, where Liberal Gordy Hogg, who rode 2015-2019, is once again a Conservative member. Parliament is facing Kerry Lane Findley, who won less than a thousand votes in 2019
If the CPC can maintain its slow steady rise in momentum during the last two weeks of the campaign, there may be a risk of a fall in an area once considered safe for liberals, including Delta, which Represented by Liberal Cabinet Minister Carla Quattro.
It had an important cove-influenced portfolio: employment, manpower development and disability involvement. If Qualitro, who won by more than 4,300 votes in 2019, is running in the run-up to election night, he will outnumber Justin Trudeau.
Delta variety to worry about.
Bruce Cameron, a Black Press media election analyst, has been a polyster for more than 35 years, initially working for Gallup Polls, Decima Research and Angus Red Group before founding his company Return on Insight. He is a regular media commentator on CBC and CTV.