Why should China-Russia relations worry you

When the People’s Republic of China decides to take action against Taiwan, its mode of action is unlikely to make the US intervention decision clear. If China decides not to fully invade the island country at least at the beginning, it can choose to try to “win without a fight.” Beijing may use its large state-controlled fishing fleet to cut smaller islands controlled by Taipei from Taiwan itself, just as China is now gathering fishing boats to expand Chinese-controlled waters in order to make claims against Japan’s Senkaku Islands and the Whitsundays. Same in Philippine waters. China’s state-owned fishing company-part of the so-called “maritime militia”-acts as the frontier of PLA intelligence. Using their fleet to operate in a disputed gray area around Taiwan in a way between peace and conflict will allow Beijing to test whether the United States and its allies are willing to help defend the island’s independence without being seen as triggering Open conflict.

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