Which countries are expected to achieve the WHO Covid vaccination target?

On December 1, 2021, a health worker prepares a Pfizer vaccine booster for a client in Sydney, Australia.

Lisa Marie Williams | Getty Images

Researchers said that the United States, like many other countries in Europe, Asia and Africa, is not expected to achieve the 2022 WHO Covid vaccination target.

In October, WHO set a target for countries to vaccinate 70% of their population by mid-2022.

According to the forecast made by Our World in Data (last updated on Tuesday), more than 100 countries will not be able to achieve this goal.

Our data world forecasts are compiled using official data, and the current vaccination rate in each country is calculated as the average number of people who received the second dose of the vaccine in the past 14 days. The researchers then assumed that these vaccination rates would remain unchanged until the WHO mid–2022 target.

The researchers said: “By adding this expected share to the proportion of the population that has been fully vaccinated, we can predict how many people will be fully vaccinated by July 1, 2022.” “We excluded from our predictions. Countries that have not reported data for more than 30 days.”

They admitted that their approach did not take into account variables such as potential vaccine shortages, changes in vaccination rates, or new government policies.

Some countries that are not expected to be able to vaccinate 70% of their population by the middle of this year include Estonia, Jamaica and Nigeria.

Fewer than 50 countries have reached the 70% threshold, including Qatar, Portugal and Japan.

Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Hong Kong have not yet exceeded the 70% threshold, but they are considered to be expected to achieve WHO’s goals by mid-2022.