What will happen to the resumption of Iranian nuclear negotiations next week?Nuclear news

Washington DC – Indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States to resume Nuclear agreement After a long pause, the prospect of resuming the landmark agreement is doubtful, and it will be restarted next week.

although breakthrough Unsurprisingly, analysts said that the talks scheduled to begin in Vienna on November 29 will reveal how Tehran will conduct diplomacy under conservative leadership. President Ibrahim Raisi, Its government raised Iran’s requirements before resuming transactions.

“We will discover how these are different [Iranian] The hardliners come from the former hardliners; we will find out whether they will become softer,” said Negar Mortazavi, an Iranian-American journalist and analyst.

“And we will also understand whether Americans really realize that they have missed an opportunity and that they should change their position to some extent.”

Supporters of the agreement, including Motazavi, criticized U.S. President Joe Biden for not rushing to reinstate the agreement during his first few months in office, which was then a more moderate Iran led by former President Hassan Rouhani. The government is responsible.

Six rounds of Vienna talks Between April And June failed to open a path back to the agreement. “The window of golden opportunity is very short, and the Biden team completely missed it,” Motazavi told Al Jazeera.

‘Cautious and pessimistic’

As conservatives are in power in Tehran, Iran has acquired irreversible nuclear expertise, and Biden seems unwilling to unilaterally relax sanctions. Motazavi said she is “cautiously pessimistic” about the possibility of successful negotiations.

But experts said that the fact that Iran has agreed to return to the negotiating table in the Austrian capital is a welcome sign for diplomacy.

Progressive groups called on Biden to take “goodwill gestures” toward Iran before the talks, such as unfreezing some Iranian assets held under US sanctions for humanitarian purposes.

However, despite branding former President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran As a failure, The Biden administration continues to enforce the Trump-era sanctions while imposing new sanctions its.

Trump cancelled the multilateral nuclear agreement officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA) in 2018. Biden has promised to restore the agreement and emphasized that diplomacy is the best option to contain Iran’s nuclear program.

At the same time, Iran upgraded its nuclear program that was contained by the agreement.It is enriching uranium 60% Compared with the 3.67% allowed by the transaction. It also uses more advanced centrifuges.

Tehran insists that its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes, but US officials have warned that the latest developments in Iran’s nuclear program have greatly shortened Iran’s “breakthrough time” for nuclear weapons.

Iranian officials insist that Iran’s violation of the JCPOA is a response to US sanctions. Unlike the United States, Iran is still a party to the agreement. They said that Washington, as the party to abandon the agreement, should lift all sanctions.

Ali Bagheri Kani, Iran’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, stated: “Unless the party that violates and does not comply with the agreement has not demonstrated its commitment to the JCPOA in practice, Iran has no reason to give up the rights and guarantees guaranteed by the agreement. Rights.” The Minister, who will lead the Iranian negotiating team in Vienna, Tell Al Jazeera Earlier this week.

Broader U.S. diplomacy

Sina Azodi, a non-resident researcher at the Atlantic Council think tank, also said that Biden’s failure to start negotiations in advance “wasted a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity”-but it is still possible to find a viable agreement.

He suggested working to reach an interim agreement, which would cause the United States to relax some sanctions and suspend Iran’s nuclear progress, buying time for more comprehensive negotiations. However, one of the challenges will be to solve the problem of nuclear technology acquired by Iran.

“You can’t really destroy the knowledge and experience that Iranians have already acquired,” Azodi told Al Jazeera. “Whether the United States will agree, I’m not sure.”

U.S. and Israeli officials have already sounded the alarm on the issue of nuclear escalation.Israel against JCPOA Threatened to “take action” Oppose Iran at any time. Biden and his senior assistants also touted “Other options“If diplomacy fails, oppose Iran.

Robert Marley, the US special envoy for Iran, told National Public Radio (NPR) this week that if Iranians choose not to return to the JCPOA, the United States is considering “other efforts-diplomacy and other aspects.” “If they start to get too close, too close to be comfortable, then of course we won’t just sit back and watch,” he said.

But the Biden administration is still active on the diplomatic front.

After its Arab partners in the Gulf, the United States is heading to Vienna. visit Marley traveled to the area last week to publicly support the U.S. efforts to restore the JCPOA. Washington’s Gulf allies, especially Riyadh, have previously publicly opposed the agreement.

In a joint statement on November 17, the U.S. and the Gulf Cooperation Council Working Group on Iran stated that resuming full compliance with the agreement “will help pave the way for inclusive diplomacy efforts to address all necessary to ensure sustainable security. Question, the security and prosperity of the region”.

Ryan Costello, director of policy at the National Council of Iranian Americans (NIAC), called the statement “significant.”

“Now, we have tested the alternative to JCPOA-the maximum pressure-it has indeed worsened the security of the area and led to the attack On the tanker, And did not benefit anyone.As Trump has shown, the U.S. does not necessarily go to war [the Gulf nations’] Fight for them,” Costello told Al Jazeera.

The Biden administration also seeks to align with the three European signatories of the agreement (that is, Germany, the United Kingdom, and France).Marley Hold a meeting Last week with Russian and Chinese diplomats.

“Let the Saudis and Emiratis at least not object to it and not try to disrupt the negotiations. I think this is a positive step,” Azodi said.

U.S. domestic challenges

Nevertheless, the resumption of the Vienna talks comes at a time when Biden’s domestic politics is full of worries.

The government urges Congress to pass an ambitious $1.75 trillion society Consumption plan Before the crucial midterm elections a year later, while also dealing with Rising inflation As the world strives to end the pandemic, the COVID-19 infection rate has risen.

In terms of foreign policy, Biden is still dealing with the consequences of the election Chaos retreat Some Republicans from Afghanistan asked him to resign.Although JCPOA is still supported by the American public, according to public opinion PollsSome senior Democrats in Congress seem to be skeptical of the deal, and Republicans almost unanimously oppose it.

The transaction can be resumed through administrative action, but it requires the president’s political capital, and the Democratic majority has a weak majority in the Senate and House of Representatives. Any concessions made by the United States to Iran may provoke criticism at home.

Costello said that persistent domestic issues and the weak advantage of Congress “restricted attention to international affairs,” making it difficult for the president to promote controversial major foreign policy initiatives.

“I think this is another factor in the slowdown in re-engagement with Iran in the first half of this year,” he said.

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