The war is not won by evacuation

Mark Kelton, Former Deputy Director of the CIA’s Counter-Intelligence Bureau, National Secret Service

Password Briefing Expert Mark Kelton He is a retired CIA senior director with 34 years of experience in intelligence operations. Before retiring, he served as the deputy director of counterintelligence for the CIA.He is a partner of FiveEyes Group and chairman of the board of Spookstock, a charity that provides assistance to the CIA Memorial Foundation, the Special Operations Warrior Foundation, and the Defense Intelligence Memorial Foundation.

expert’s point ——Winston Churchill swore in his speech on June 4, 1940 that he and his countrymen would “fight on the beach” and “never surrender” in the face of the seemingly inevitable Nazi invasion. Naturally, he became the most famous wartime speech leader in history. What is less known, however, is the warning tone issued by the new prime minister in the same appearance in the House of Commons, as he tried to ease the joy and relief of the seemingly miraculous withdrawal of British troops from Dunkirk Beach. “We must,” Churchill warned, “be very careful not to attribute victory to this kind of salvation.” He cautioned, “War is not won by evacuation.”

Shortly before the Abbottabad operation that killed Osama bin Laden in 2011, my headquarters asked me what I thought about the attack because we were not sure if it sheltered the terrorist leader. We call it Ah Bertabad compound 1 (AC1). After expressing my 95% certainty that the Al-Qaida (AQ) leader is indeed there, I fabled that we must go on strike because “you can’t leave Hitler in his bunker and end the war.” I am very lucky. In my assessment, there are murderers in AC1 who have killed so many innocent people. Sadly, his death did not end our war with radical Islamic terrorism. As in the situation after Dunkirk, our enemies are unwilling to withdraw from the battlefield or limit their unlimited war goals.

Likewise, we should not expect that the withdrawal of our troops from the battlefield in Afghanistan will mark the end of the conflict with the terrorists who attacked us on September 11, 2001. We cannot unilaterally declare the end of the war. The terrorist act of leaving Afghanistan — no matter how much we wish to do it — is for the simple reason that our enemies do not have this desire. As former Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta said, “I know we are trying to get our troops out of there, but the bottom line is that we can leave the battlefield, but we cannot leave the war on terror, which is still safe for us. threatening.”

The Taliban parade showcases American-made weapons and the equipment of their defeated enemies, in a way similar to ancient Rome, not just to celebrate victory. This is also to humiliate the conquered. This victorious demonstration — and the 9/11 anniversary as their own holiday — will arouse an enthusiastic response from Islamic extremists and will attract many new followers to the cause and the core of the Taliban’s legitimacy. Belief.

Just as we left Iraq and later had to return to the region to crush the Islamic State caliphate that moved after we left, the success of the Taliban is likely to inject new vitality into Islamic extremist groups. And there is no reason to believe that the “new” now armed with more Taliban-an organization that refused to break with AQ in the cruel battle for 20 years, will be less willing to cooperate with Islamic terrorist organizations than they did before 9/11. The ancestors are even more so.

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“We will have to maintain very, very dense metrics, warnings and observations, and ISR [Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance] General Mark Milli, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in a recent interview, adding that it is not easy.

As CIA Director William Burns said in his testimony in the Senate in April, “Our ability to control threats from Al-Qaida or Islamic State in Afghanistan… The intelligence provided by the Intelligence Agency and our other intelligence partners fuels the air.” Burns said that with the withdrawal of the U.S. military, “the ability of the U.S. government to collect threats and take action will weaken.”

Many of the discussed “beyond-the-horizon” intelligence collections targeting terrorist targets in Afghanistan will not fill the void left by our loss of the ability to monitor and attack terrorist targets from domestic bases. Since countries around Afghanistan are unlikely to be willing to accept the important presence of the United States, intelligence gathering missions must now be launched from bases far beyond the horizon, all of which means the quantity, quality, and timeliness of the intelligence collected. Such operations will be correspondingly more expensive and difficult to install. In addition, the moment we left Afghanistan, the in-depth understanding of our opponents that we had painstakingly built on the ground in nearly 20 years began to age. Without on-the-spot intelligence, our ability to collect terrorist organizations operating within and outside the country will only be further reduced over time.

After acknowledging that we “may see a comeback of terrorism in the region in the next 12 to 36 months,” Milly continued, “When the opportunity arises…the United States.” However, as we had before 9/11 As indicated, such long-range strikes may delay the plans of our terrorist enemies, but they will not prevent their intentions to strike the United States.

Therefore, Minister Panetta’s conclusion that the US intervention in Afghanistan has not yet ended is undoubtedly correct. Panetta said: “We will have to re-enter the Islamic State.” “When Al Qaeda and the Taliban are resurrected together, we may have to go back, just like them.” And, just as we destroyed the Islamic State after leaving Iraq quickly The actions of the so-called Caliphate are the same. There is no doubt that if we have to return to Afghanistan, our mission will be greatly complicated by the way we leave. That country, give up our allies and bases there.

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The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan will have a profound geostrategic impact on the US position in the region and in the world. Our opponents in China, Russia and Iran will seize the opportunity to fill the void left by our departure.

The Taliban have already stated that they will contact China, which covets Afghanistan’s mineral wealth. Establishing a deal with the Taliban regime, which is short of funds, and allowing access to Afghanistan’s mineral resources — and possibly the use of Bagram Air Force Base — in exchange for financial aid and China’s support for the Taliban in international organizations will benefit Beijing. Express concerns about human rights and other aspects.

As far as Central Asian countries are concerned, they will turn their eyes from Washington to their old masters in Moscow and the rising China to ensure their safety and economic well-being. Islamabad, while publicly celebrating the victory of their Taliban agents and their role in guiding it, must also worry that the extremism embodied by the victors will gain new traction outside of its border provinces, which all means The national security of Pakistan.

Surprised by Washington’s decision to leave and withdraw troops, even our closest and oldest allies are questioning America’s resolve. They will definitely think twice before accepting any request from the United States to join the joint operation in the future. Our decision to withdraw from Afghanistan and its messy implementation will also raise questions about the validity of the United States’ guarantees to other countries threatened by the aggressors. They will not forget that the withdrawal of the U.S. Air Force, intelligence, planning expertise, and logistical support ensured the collapse of the Afghan army that relied on the United States.

Our opponents will also see the chaotic nature of our departure and the abandonment of Americans, allied citizens, and Afghans as signs of weakness and weakness in an uncertain destiny. This possibility is particularly dangerous because they can seize this moment of distraction by the United States and engage in opportunistic adventurism, which may include China’s actions against Taiwan; Russia attempts to forcibly resolve the impasse with Ukraine; strengthen Iran’s proxy against Israel Prosecution of the People’s War; or North Korea further strengthens its nuclear program. Any such incident will force the United States to make a strong response, otherwise it may further weaken its international credibility.

Finally, the cost involved in remote monitoring and trying to stop threats from Taliban-controlled Afghanistan means that we will not be able to divert intelligence and military resources from the war on terrorism to respond to threats posed by our peers. Ever hoped.

It is said that Aristotle once said: “If you do not have courage, you will never do anything in this world. It is the greatest spiritual quality second only to honor.” Likewise, what many people show Courage—especially the heroic actions of the U.S. military and CIA personnel—in seeking to evacuate American citizens from Afghanistan and fulfill our obligations to the Afghans who have worked and fought with us for a long time cannot avoid leaving so many people. , To embarrass the waiter. The bloody Taliban atrocities and retaliation against the latter are certain.

It will not be long before the new rulers of Kabul will realize that the Americans now under their control may be useful pawns when trying to obtain diplomatic, financial, and other concessions in exchange for their freedom. The effectiveness of our future efforts to free our own people and our Afghan allies from the clutches of the Taliban, and how we respond to any attempts to use them as a bargaining chip against us, will determine the stain of national honor we have accompanied depth. The disastrous ending of our battle in Afghanistan.

In the same famous speech, Churchill solemnly told his compatriots: “The Battle of France is over, and the Battle of Britain is about to begin.” He went on to say: “We better tighten our belts for the next war.”

When we are close to 20day On the 9/11 anniversary, we should commemorate our sacred dead from that terrible day. But we should also prepare for the battle against Al-Qaeda and the murderous Cain that is bound to come.

Recent polls It will show that the Americans support the decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, if not done in this way. Some people want to know, if the question is “Do you support the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, even if this significantly increases the possibility of terrorist attacks and atrocities against compatriots at home and abroad”, how will the interviewee answer? I fear we will find out soon.

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