The US-China relationship on the Taiwan issue will become Asia’s biggest risk in 2022: Analyst

On July 30, 2019, before the US trade delegation met with Chinese counterparts in Shanghai, China, the national flags of China and the United States were flying near the Bund.

Ali Song | Reuters

A political risk analyst said that the tension between the United States and China over the Taiwan issue will become a major risk facing Asia in the coming year.

DJ Peterson, president of the research firm Longview Global Advisors, said that Beijing believes that any actions by Washington in Taiwan are negative or infringing on its interests.

“This is the biggest risk, I think in Asia in 2022. If you look at the current relationship between the United States and China, it is really a kind of’Cold War 2’type of relationship,” he told CNBC’s “Street Sign “Asia” Tuesday.

At the end of last year, President Joe Biden signed into law The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2022. Peterson said this further weakened the relationship between the two countries.

“The law, that is, the recently signed National Defense Authorization Act, has several provisions that Beijing does not like, including these favors to Taiwan. Any country’s favors to Taiwan are regarded as zero-sum losses for Beijing-they The reaction was very strong. Sternly,” he pointed out.

The Olympics will be a very interesting story. Will it be regarded as a sign of China’s another achievement and an opportunity for partnership?

DJ Peterson

President of Longview Global Advisors

In China in particular, the legislation includes a Pacific Deterrence Initiative that sets aside $7.1 billion. It also includes the Congress’ statement of support for Taiwan’s national defense.

China claims Taiwan As part of its territory, it has been putting pressure on democratic islands to accept its rule.

Peterson said that the biggest difficulty facing Asian countries will be how they manage the competing interests of the United States and China.

“The challenge faced by Taiwan and regional participants in 2022 is: How do countries balance … geopolitical interests, trade interests, technology and supply chain interests with China and the United States?” He pointed out. He said joining the Cold War-type scenario “significantly increases the risk.”

Peterson also emphasized that China has made many Asian partners “uneasy” and the upcoming Winter Olympics in Beijing in February will be of great significance to assessing its image on the global stage.

“The Olympics will be a very interesting story,” he said. “Will it be seen as a sign of China’s another achievement and an opportunity for partnership? Or will China be treated more severely, highlighting future risks and disappointments?”

In December, the U.S. declares a diplomatic boycott The Beijing Winter Olympics violated human rights. Although American athletes will still participate, the Biden administration will not send any official representatives to the Olympics.

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the move and called it “A mockery of the Olympic spirit”, He also stated that Beijing will take necessary and resolute countermeasures.