This article was originally written by Luxi in London. These views do not represent the views of RUSI.
expert’s point -The international community is facing increasing pressure and needs to recognize the Taliban and unfreeze the Afghan funds held by the International Monetary Fund, otherwise it will face the risk of a winter humanitarian crisis and the return of international terrorism.
As Afghanistan overwinter urgent need It is to avoid a humanitarian crisis.The World Food Programme initiated a appeal Feeding as many as 23 million people, Médecins Sans Frontières has followed suit in the healthcare sector.Fortunately, the distribution mechanism is in place within Afghanistan; what the international community needs to do is make sure The United Nations Humanitarian Program is fully funded. This will require Western capitals to overcome the impact of recent failures. Needless to say, hunger and health should not be used as tools of political leverage.
At the same time, it has become increasingly clear that the Taliban did not have the skills to manage a country more complex than Afghanistan in 1996 when they began their previous disastrous period in power. They will need international assistance to stabilize the economy, get people back to work, and in time to continue the infrastructure improvements that have been in progress since 2002.China is undoubtedly willing to help in certain areas, but Beijing has made it clear that it is use A cautious, incremental approach. However, there are new signs that the Taliban’s stubborn views are beginning to relax; for example, their approval of the polio vaccination plan and their willingness to cooperate with UN humanitarian agencies.
The Taliban also need outside help to defeat the threat of the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISK). The Taliban have found it difficult to counter similar asymmetric tactics, which they have used so successfully against Western troops. This may be one of the topics that CIA Director William Burns discussed with the Taliban during his visit on August 24, and was of interest to both parties.
After the Taliban’s amazing victory, what are the actual expectations of the international community (not just the West) for the Taliban? The requirements of minimalism will inevitably be left out.
First, the Taliban should form a more inclusive government. According to multiple sources, if Ashraf Ghani does not flee the country on August 15, the Taliban intends to form such a government. I doubt whether this is their intention, but former President Hamid Karzai and former head of reconciliation Abdullah Abdullah may stay in Kabul based on this understanding. Former negotiator Fatima Ghalani , insist This is the intention of the Taliban.
An inclusive government needs to include women and non-Taliban representatives from Hazara, Uzbek and Tajik communities. It does not need to include politicians and bloody warlords who have failed in the past, especially Gulbudin Hikmatyar and Abdul Rashid Dostum. Now is definitely the time for a new generation of more technocratic Afghans to join the government. Some people may be persuaded to return from abroad, but their safety needs to be guaranteed.
Second, the international community should insist on restoring women’s education at all levels so that women can play a fuller role in society. The Taliban will hesitate, but they only need to look at Pakistan, where women play an important role in an openly Islamic (if not Islamic) society.
Third, all neighboring countries and the wider world hope that Afghanistan will promise to remove all terrorist bases and terrorists from its territory; not only ISK and Al Qaeda, but also the East Turkistan Islamic Movement, the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), and the Iranian and anti-India groups, and radical movements in Central Asia including the Uzbek Islamic Movement.
Fourth, the Taliban should promise that people can be allowed to reunite with their families in exile if they want, and stop continuing to search for and punish Afghans who have served the Afghan government and Western allies since 2001.
In an ideal world, there will be a fifth requirement: remove members of the Haqqani network from the Taliban government. However, when U.S. negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad contacted the Haqqani in Doha, the pass was sold—another result of that disastrous dialogue. In addition, the current reality is that the Haqqani controls Kabul and its airport, and Sirajadin Haqqani holds the key position of the Minister of the Interior.
On the contrary, the Haqqani needs to be persuaded to prevent al-Qaeda from regrouping in Afghanistan. Sirajuddin’s father is closely related to Osama bin Laden, and the organization still has ties to Al Qaeda. Pakistan is already using Haqqanis to bring TTP to the negotiating table. How this will succeed remains to be seen.It is doubtful whether the Haqqani would willing Take military action against a group of people from similar areas on the tribal border. However, even if the Haqqanis cannot act as law enforcement agents, they can also act as intermediaries.
At the same time, the wider Taliban, often referred to as “Kandahari”, is increasingly angered by the immigrants, Hakanis. Although the two have worked together, they have never lost much love. The Kandahari have always distrusted the closeness of the Haqqani to the Pakistani army. Since the Taliban took over Afghanistan, Mullah Abdul-Gani Baradar’s willingness to negotiate with the Kabul government in 2008 and 2010 led him to be held in Pakistani prisons for eight years.No doubt will be liquidated
One lasting regret for the careless withdrawal of the United States is that Washington has not reached a broader solution to the Afghanistan issue involving China, Iran, Russia, India, and Central Asian Republics. From now on, all neighbors must be involved in the discussion of recognition and required conditions. But first, the Afghans must be helped through the winter.
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