A sign outside a restaurant on Deer Park Avenue in North Babylon, New York, shows that all positions will open on November 12, 2021.
John Paraskevas | Newsday | Getty Images
Although some companies require employees to work from home temporarily due to the rapid spread of Covid omicron variants, recruitment in December is expected to be strong and broad-based.
According to Dow Jones data, economists forecast an increase of 422,000 jobs in December, twice the number of 210,000 in November. The unemployment rate is expected to decline by 0.0 percentage points to 4.1%.
“This should be better than what we saw in November, and the unemployment rate should drop a bit,” said Michael Gabon, Barclays’ chief US economist. “The main message from this is that the economy should be a loser in full employment and is one step closer to tightening the Fed’s policy.”
The Fed has Forecast three quarters of interest rate hikes In 2022, Gapen stated that the strong employment data in December will strengthen the central bank’s momentum to raise interest rates as soon as March.
Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, said: “The employment situation is good enough.” “We still have lost 3.9 million jobs, but the Fed has decided that we are in full employment. We may You will see an unemployment rate of 4.1%, which is lower than the Fed’s full employment level.”
According to Dow Jones data, the average hourly wage in December is expected to increase by 0.4%, or 4.2% year-on-year, compared to 4.8% in November.
This November Consumer Price Index It rose by 6.8%, the fastest growth rate since 1982. If prices and wages rise simultaneously, there is concern that there may be a self-sufficient wage/price spiral.
“The problem with the Fed is that they worry that the inflation we are seeing becomes ingrained,” Swank said. “Inflation has exceeded wage growth. Even if inflation cools, is this enough? Or we will see workers say they are not even compensated for inflation.”
Part of the reason for rising wages is the same problems behind the rising cost of goods. The demand is strong, but the supply of goods or personnel is insufficient.
Swonk said that, driven by strong growth in the leisure and hospitality industries, recruitment in December should increase across the board.
Tom Gimbel, CEO of Chicago-based LaSalle Network, said his recruitment company is busier than ever.
“Anyone can find a job they want. As we said in the Internet age, this is not the case. I don’t think it’s [only] In the next 18 months. The company wants to hire people,” Kimbell said.
In mid-December, the company extended the time to work from home. Some employees were told to work from home for a few weeks. Just like the case of Goldman Sachs. Apple delayed its return Employees of his company go to the office indefinitely.
Swank said that the pandemic will definitely drag down employment growth in January, and small businesses are under pressure to stay open due to sick employees. She said this may have a knock-on effect on the economy and the job market.
Swonk said that, in fact, the Euromicron factor may cause the number of employment in January to be flat or even negative.
She said: “The most important thing is that if you temporarily close a bunch of small businesses, then in the week of the survey, many small businesses will show up as unpaid.” “This is the conflict between delta and omicron and the flu season, and you will lose salary.”
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of workers working from home decreased in November. The number of remote workers dropped by 0.3 percentage points to 11.3%.
Kimbell said that he expects some workers to return to work after next summer, many of whom are parents of young children and school-age children. The smoking cessation rate is still very high.
“People who are able to quit smoking are quitting. We have never seen this type of labor shortage before,” Kimbell said. “This labor shortage is due to one thing, only one thing, and that is the pandemic.”