In March last year, when COVID-19 Epidemics led the US economy to an unprecedented decline He called The first principle of virus economics: “Slowing down the virus is the way to fix the economy.” On time, Donald Trump And other Republicans in New York, California, and other Democratic states have criticized the lockdown, citing its punitive effects on the economy. To test this claim, Goals B and a partner examined activity in approximately 2.25 million businesses across the country, comparing consumer behavior in cities to different lockdown responses.
He found that the real driving force behind people’s economic behavior was not lockdown but its spread. Corona virus. Wherever the death toll has risen, people have reduced business trips by the same rate – regardless of the local lockdown order. For example, visits to beauty salons in Batendorf, Iowa, where there were no lockdown restrictions, decreased as much as visits to cross-border beauty salons in Illinois, where there was a stay-at-home order across the state. “It’s not really about the lockdown order, it’s about people being scared,” Golsby said. Explained in a conference. Last December. “So, what we’re talking about now is that if the virus really does start spreading again, it could seriously undermine consumer activity.”
This is confirmed by the economic data on the rise in infections in late 2020. As the number of cases increased, costs slowed and employers stopped jobs: before the December, 2021, and February and March surges, salaries fell by 306,000 in December, as the number of cases increased. Decreased This summer, many economists hope Mass vaccination It would break the link between the virus and the economy, but it didn’t work out. After the rapid spread of delta varieties, Employment figures for August Recruitment has fallen sharply over the past two months, and other recent figures point to a significant slowdown. When I spoke to Goals B on Friday afternoon, he was relieved that White House policymakers had taken strong action to deal with the current situation. COVID Surge. “I think, if they can’t get over it, the recovery will end prematurely,” he said. “Recovery hasn’t stopped yet, and it’s not too late to control the virus. But boy, it smelled of something bad – and something else to come.”
As the number of infections caused by Delta has increased in the last two months, individuals have changed their behavior once again. Restaurant booking is closed. Several major airlines said last week that bookings for their fall were weaker than expected. Golsby told me that he had just received a note from his daughter’s college stating that the term, which had been decided in person the day after the parents, would be put into practice instead. ۔ “Now everyone is going to cancel their flights and hotel and car fares,” he predicted. “This, big post, is exactly what you see in the whole economy.” On Wall Street, economists are busy lowering their forecasts for GDP growth in the third quarter. As recently as late August, Goldman Sachs was forecasting a growth of 5.5%. It is now forecasting 3.5 percent. New data on retail and industrial production will be released this week. If they become weaker than expected, GDP estimates could fall further.
Announcing the new vaccine mandate and others. COVID According to the policies, the White House promoted them as public health initiatives. But Biden’s economic adviser, who did not appear in Thursday’s announcement, has long shared Golsby’s belief that testing for the virus is crucial to reviving the economy. Cecilia Rose, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, wrote that unless the public health situation is under control, rehabilitation will not be complete. A blog post Following the release of disappointing August job data.
Of course, the administration should have moved first. The slowdown in vaccination earlier this summer, and the rapid spread of the Delta variety in India and the UK, were both warning signs that the crisis was not over. Now that the administration. Is Accelerated implementation of our new policy will be important. The plan is for the Occupational Health and Safety Administration to issue a new rule requiring all businesses to require at least 100 people to be vaccinated or tested weekly. The rule has not yet been issued, though, and will likely face a number of legal challenges.
Assuming the new policy is implemented quickly and endorsed by the courts دو two unusual assumptions یہ it could have a major impact on the highest rate of vaccination. So far, many large businesses, especially those that employ many unskilled workers, have been reluctant to require vaccines because they fear that workers could be lost to rival firms. “No one wants to be first: it’s easy if they do it all together,” Elizabeth Conkell, an economist at the job site, told me. Konkal is tracking the number of job advertisements that mention vaccine requirements. In August, it more than doubled, but on a lesser basis. “I expect this trend to accelerate now,” he told me. “For many employers who are on the fence, the fact is that the federal government needs a vaccine – I doubt it will push them to the sidelines.” Supporting this view, the Business Roundtable, which represents the CEOs of several large companies, issued a statement supporting the new proposals.
Understandably, the need for vaccines can also help persuade more people to rejoin the workforce and look for jobs. At the onset of the epidemic, labor force participation rates fell sharply, and are still well below their normal levels. A large number of COVIDRelevant factors also appear to play a role in keeping people away from the workforce, including fear of being affected and lack of proper childcare. “Our surveys show that. COVID There is still concern for job seekers, it is still on their minds, “said Conkell. It can help alleviate labor shortages that are affecting many parts of the economy.
This is a promising scenario – with rising vaccination rates helping to reduce the spread of the virus, restore public confidence and get the economy back on track. There are also dark scenarios, of course, including the possibility that is feared. Breakthrough infection With a long-lasting economic impact, or even more, paradise is forbidden, a type more resistant to the existing vaccine emerges. Right now, however, the economic recovery is showing signs of fading, the main task is to stop the spread of various deltas, and that is what the White House is trying to do. “There’s nothing the administration can do,” Goles B insisted.
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