Baghdad, Iraq- Nearly three months after October electionThe newly elected Iraqi parliament plans to meet for the first time after the election cycle. Even according to Iraqi standards, this cycle is uncertain and chaotic.
Traditionally, the task of the first parliamentary session was to elect the speaker of the parliament and its two deputies. However, according to the agenda announced by the National Assembly, Sunday’s meeting will only include the “nominations of the speaker and two representatives”, which suggests that it may not be determined who the speaker is.
The Election Commission informed the representative Mahmoud al-Mashhadani that he is the oldest member of the parliament and will preside over the first session in accordance with the constitution.
According to analysts, this process will never be smooth: no political party can get enough support to single-handedly influence the political direction of Iraq in the next four years.
Early elections—the lowest voter turnout rate since the establishment of the post-invasion political system led by the United States in 2003, at 44%—promoted Muktada SadrHe is the supreme leader of the Shia sect. His politics is based on his resolute rejection of any foreign presence in Iraq. He won a great victory with 73 of the 329 seats.
It also dealt a humiliating blow to the Fatah coalition, which has a pro-Iranian People’s Mobilization Force (PMF) paramilitary organization. The organization has only 17 seats, and its number of representatives will be drastically reduced compared with the outgoing parliament.
In the months leading up to the first parliamentary meeting, Iraq’s political landscape was dominated by meetings between different political parties, trying to form a government that could promote their own interests, interspersed with constant backgrounds. Claim Fraud and threats to boycott the entire election result.
After the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court approved the final results of the election at the end of December last year, the dust settled. Compared with the preliminary results, there are only some changes. Although the remaining tensions surrounding the election results may last for several months, they will still affect the upcoming government. form.
Sadr won the largest share, partly because he carefully adjusted his campaign strategy to take advantage of the new electoral law. He has been vigorously promoting the majority government, which basically put the Fatah alliance and the former prime minister in Nuri Maliki To the opposition.
Sadr issued a statement shortly after the election results were confirmed: “I think the first thing the country needs to do in the future is to establish a national majority government.”
After the results of the primary elections were announced, the phrase “Neither Eastern nor Western” he initially advocated frequently appeared in his political narratives, verbally rejecting foreign influence and hoping to establish a majority government. But this has not yet been translated into specific clauses in the process of government formation.
The Shiite coordination framework composed of Maliki’s rule of law, the Fatah Alliance and its allies is still unwilling to hand over the next government to the majority government led by Sadr and continues to push for a consensus government.
In this arduous and complicated negotiation process, almost all imaginable meetings were held. Conferences are also held across the country, from Baghdad to Najaf to Erbil. However, despite seemingly endless rounds of discussions between the parties, no agreement has been reached.
“Iraqi’s political differences make it difficult for a majority government to be elected, and since no party has won an absolute majority, it is necessary to establish a coalition whether it is to establish a majority government or a national consensus government,” said Iraqi politician Hamzeh Hadad. . And economic analysts, wrote recently.
The long process of government formation that eventually alienated voters who participated in the elections is no longer news in Iraq.
In the previous elections after the 2003 invasion, the negotiation process that led to the formation of a new government took months and was often accompanied by violence. Almost without exception, the ruling elite has shuffled internally, and Iraq continues to suffer from corruption, violence and the general lack of effective governance.
“Government formation means that the Iraqi political system has undergone stress testing to confirm its resilience. When the worse results of consensus, sectarianism, and compromise combine to result in a weak, ineffective, inevitably corrupt and disconnected government coming to power,” Sa Sajad Jiyad, a researcher at the Century Foundation, wrote on social media.
With the convening of the first parliamentary meeting to elect the Speaker, this lack of consensus will soon be directly resolved. There is still uncertainty among Sunni parties.
“So far, there has been no agreement between the Sunni Taqadum and al-Azim,” said Kamaran Palani, a researcher at the Middle East Institute, referring to the two largest Sunni parties.
“[Mohammed] Halbousi has a majority of Sunnis, but this is not enough, because Sunni parties still need the blessings of major Shiite forces. The framework does not support Halbousi, while Sadr is flexible. “
The uncertainty surrounding the nomination of the speaker extends to two other presidents: the president, reserved for the Kurds, and the prime minister is Shia. Similarly, their respective political groups have not yet reached any agreement.
No name is close to being widely believed to be able to obtain the post of prime minister. As Sadr promotes Sadr candidates, and the Shia framework still insists on nominating candidates from their group, tensions continue to increase.
Haddad explained: “This country is largely a weak prime minister-led country because they stand out from a weak political foundation, either as candidates for internal compromise or as candidates for compromise.” Iraqi politics, especially about the confidence of ordinary Iraqis in the system.
“Unfortunately, this will further increase the frustration of the Iraqi people. Their calls for direct voting for their commander-in-chief are getting louder and louder.”