Global warming 3 degrees Celsius will destroy the earth

Rob Dobi of BuzzFeed News

There is a very real opportunity The earth will heat up by an average of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) this century-this would be catastrophic.

Scientists agree that in such a hot world, fatal heat waves, large-scale wildfires, and destructive downpours will occur more frequently and hit harder than today. The ocean will also become hotter and more acidic, Lead to fewer fish It may be the end of coral reefs.In fact, about a quarter of the species on earth May be extinct In this case or in that direction. Our coastline will be reshaped. This is the result of rising sea levels one foot after another, centuries after centuries, Drowning place Examples include Charleston, Market Street in South Carolina, downtown Providence, Rhode Island, and the Space Center in Houston.

As Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said, all of this will bad: “Not good for mankind. Not good for the ecosystem. Not good for the stability of the earth system on which we humans depend.”

Experts cannot say exactly how likely this future is, because it depends on the work done by mankind to alleviate the worsening climate crisis, especially in the next ten years. But for the world leaders attending the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow this weekend, if they disagree to take more active and direct measures to limit greenhouse gas emissions, then this future is likely to become inevitable.

“Not good for mankind. Not good for the ecosystem. Not good for the stability of the earth system on which we humans depend.”

The global collective goal under the Paris Climate Agreement is to prevent global temperatures from rising by no more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), and ideally no more than 1.5 degrees (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). But currently, Our goal almost doubled — Potentially catastrophic 3 degrees.

“I worry that if there is no science-based policy, and if the most ambitious goals are not achieved, we will face a world of 3 degrees Celsius later in this century,” said a climate scientist at Georgia Institute of Technology and author of the study. One of them, Kim Cobb (Kim Cobb) said. The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) told BuzzFeed News. “Frankly, this is almost unthinkable.”

So, what would it look like to raise 3 degrees Celsius?

On the one hand, our world will be much hotter than it is today.

George Ross/Getty Images

The water level of Lake Tahoe seen in South Lake Tahoe, California on October 17th has fallen below its natural edge, dropping more than 3 feet and cutting off the flow of the Truckee River.

starting point It is not today that is used to measure future warming—it is the late 1800s, when reliable global temperature records became available. More than a century later, the earth has warmed by a little over 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degree Fahrenheit) due to the accumulation of fossil fuel pollutants such as carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere.This is an average, but Some places are already much warmer.

Adding 2 degrees to the more than 1 degree we have already added will make our world hotter, and it will become disproportionately hotter on land. The reason is as follows: Approximately 70% of the earth’s area is covered by water, and the water heats up slower than land.

“If the whole world heats up by 3 degrees Celsius,” Swain explained, “all land areas must have a much higher temperature than this.”

“Frankly, this is almost unthinkable.”

According to Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and energy systems analyst at the Breakthrough Institute, the average temperature on land may increase by about 1.5 degrees Celsius, or a total increase of 4.5 degrees Celsius.And the Arctic region may be hotter, the Arctic region has Warming up about three times The speed of the rest of the earth.

One way to imagine what this might look like where we live is to consider the estimated number of days that the local temperature will reach or exceed 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius). Earlier this century, Arizona experienced about 116 days of high temperature, Texas for about 43 days, Georgia for about 11 days, Montana for about 6 days, and Massachusetts for only 1 day. Climate Impact Laboratory Modeling.

If global temperatures rise by an average of 3 degrees Celsius by 2100, these numbers will soar to 179 to 229 days, at least 95 degrees Fahrenheit in Arizona, 135 to 186 days in Texas, and 85 to 143 days in Texas. . According to the same analysis, it is 46 to 78 days in Georgia, Montana, and 26 to 66 days in Massachusetts.

Disasters will multiply.

Michael Hansen/AFP via Getty Images

On August 14, a sign for a cooling center at Kellogg Middle School in Portland, Oregon.

Just this summer, The heat wave in the Northwest Pacific brought temperatures similar to Death Valley to British Columbia, Oregon and Washington. Killed hundreds of people If the scientist agrees, “almost impossible“There is no climate change. Then one Record downpour It fell about 9 inches in central Tennessee, killing about two dozen people. And last weekend, Drop more than 5 inches in a day In Sacramento, the capital of California, a new record was set.

“What I’m thinking is, what shocking events will happen if the global warming is 3 degrees?” Swain said.

It is impossible to know the answer exactly. But its general outline is clear: even more common and more intense extreme high temperature events and equally more frequent and more intense downpours, even in such a world where it is expected to become drier. This applies to almost anywhere on the planet.

“There are very few places on Earth that will not see an increase in maximum precipitation intensity,” Swain said, adding that “it is very likely that zero places will not experience an increase in the hottest days.”

Pete Bannan / MediaNews Group via Getty Images

Warren Montgomery tried to cross a road in Chatsford, Pennsylvania, after the storm system of Hurricane Ida triggered a historic flood.

Statistics from The latest IPCC report Support this. In the late 1880s, extreme high temperature events (such as heat waves), which are considered to be once in 10 years, were more than 5.6 times more likely to occur with a global warming of 3 degrees. The result may be higher electricity costs due to the explosion of the air conditioner, which may cause power supply problems. Those who are unable to cool down may develop more fevers. Then there are water shortages; coupled with continued heat waves, they may lead to large-scale crop failures.

Similarly, the probability of an extreme precipitation event that was previously considered to be a once-in-decade occurrence on land is 1.7 times more likely. These types of disasters have historically caused roads to be washed out, houses and businesses were flooded, and power lines were destroyed.

At the same time, the frequency and intensity of regional disasters will also increase. Think of longer droughts and greater wildfires on the West Coast, and stronger hurricanes along the Gulf Coast and East Coast. To make matters worse, a phenomenon called “complex disasters” may mean that such events occur in rapid succession or at the same time.A recent example is Lake Charles, Louisiana, Suffered many disasters declared by the federal government in one year: back-to-back hurricanes, including devastating Category 4 storms, followed by winter storms, and then intense flooding.

Nickolay Lamm / Courtesy of the Climate Center

Rendering of the National Mall with 3 degrees of global warming

In a world warming by 3 degreesToday’s coastline will largely disappear, and in the next few centuries, it will decrease endlessly due to rising sea levels.

By the end of 2100, sea levels are expected to rise by about 2 feet on average. This is almost disastrous for small island nations. Most of the Maldives, large areas of Bermuda, and parts of Seychelles, including its airport, may all be underwater. The same is true for most parts of Bangkok, the capital of Thailand, with a population of over 5 million; the cities of Amsterdam, The Hague and Rotterdam in the Netherlands, which have a combined population of approximately 2 million; and most of the U.S. Gulf Coast, including New Orleans and Parts of large cities such as Galveston, Texas.These examples are based on Mapping Provided by the research team Climate Center, its forecasts do not consider current or future defenses built in response to rising water levels.

“It is estimated that 12% of the world’s population living on land may be threatened.”

In the next century and the next century, the amount of water will continue to rise. Therefore, after jumping to 2000, Robert Cope, a climate scientist at Rutgers University, predicted that the water level would be 13 to 30 feet higher than the current water level.According to the Climate Center, assuming no defensive measures are taken against rising water levels, so much water may inundate parts of the California Bay Area and Los Angeles, and relocate Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alaska. Most of the coast of Palma and Florida Mapping.

Scott Kulp, chief computational scientist at the Climate Center, said: “In the case of a long-term sea level rise of 3 degrees Celsius in the future, it is estimated that 12% of the world’s land population may be threatened.” “So this is equivalent to 810 million people.”

The forecast to 2100 does not take into account the possibility of rapid melting of the world’s ice sheet, and even longer-term estimates do not assume a complete and rapid collapse, although this is possible. Kopp explained in an email: “We pushed the system up by more than 2 degrees Celsius-but we don’t know how much-the more likely we are to trigger the ice sheet process, which could rapidly increase sea level rise.”

The terrible unknown.

David McNew/Getty Images

On October 13, the Alizal fire near Goleta, California scorched the bush landscape.

Maybe most The scary thing about a world warming by 3 degrees is that it is uncertain how it will affect what we call natural carbon sinks—think plants and trees, soil, and even the ocean—to regularly and continuously extract carbon dioxide from the air. If these If any one of the sinks stops absorbing as much carbon as possible, more carbon will remain in the atmosphere, thereby exacerbating global warming.

“Of course we cannot rule out the possibility of a global warming of 4 degrees.”

Or one of the longer-term carbon sinks may disappear. For example, there is now a layer of frozen soil, called permafrost, covering all parts of the earth, including the poles.In general, all these permafrost Store more carbon Than currently in the atmosphere. As the earth warms, the permafrost will thaw, releasing some carbon into the atmosphere along the way and exacerbating the warming in a dangerous feedback loop.

Cobb of Georgia Institute of Technology said: “We now have half of our emissions pulled back into the ground by natural carbon sinks. These carbon sinks have been operating at the same level of service for ten years, ten years later.” “So look to the future, as one A climate scientist, we are beginning to realize the real risk that these natural carbon sinks may stop functioning under higher warming levels. This is very worrying.”

As Hausfather of the Breakthrough Institute said: “The problem is that even if we think that under the current policy we are on the track of 3 degrees of global warming, we certainly cannot rule out the possibility of 4 degrees of global warming.” ●

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