As the Fed prepares to cancel the stimulus measures, Bitcoin has suffered a heavy setback this week, but the bulls feel as confident as ever.
Since the beginning of this year, the cryptocurrency with the largest market capitalization has shrunk by about $80 billion, due to the plunge that brought it to its lowest level since the flash crash in early December. But there are predictions that it can still reach the boasted $100,000 level sometime this year.
To reach this milestone, it must more than double the current $42,900 or so. Analysts say it’s not that it can’t — it has released a large number of triple-digit annual returns in the past decade — but for cryptocurrencies, the road ahead may be more difficult because the Fed is more hawkish.
“Cryptocurrencies have benefited from the Fed’s massive liquidity injection since 2020,” said Matt Marley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. “It pushed these assets too far and too fast.”
Together with riskier assets such as U.S. stocks, Bitcoin and other digital assets plummeted on Wednesday after the minutes of a recent Federal Reserve meeting showed that officials were willing to withdraw stimulus measures earlier than many had expected.
The press release pointed out that the central bank will raise interest rates earlier and faster, which will increase the cost of capital for the entire economy. This may keep investors away from cryptocurrencies, many of which have made huge gains in the past two years with increased stimulus.
But not everyone agrees that this environment is bad for cryptocurrencies. Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone stated that Bitcoin is a risky asset, and in such a world, it is evolving into a digital reserve asset—which has a positive impact on its price.
He wrote in a report that the coin “is moving in the direction of $100,000.” “Cryptocurrency is the first choice for risk-taking and speculation. If risky assets decline, it will help the Fed fight inflation. As a global reserve asset, Bitcoin may be the main beneficiary in this situation.”
Nonetheless, this has not stopped other industry players such as Messari Inc. co-founder Ryan Selkis from making fun of the basis of some sky-high price predictions.
By May, my price targets for BTC and ETH are 100,000 U.S. dollars and 10,000 U.S. dollars.
I came up with these goals yesterday by looking at the chart and wrote down the numbers I hope the market will reach by spring.
— Ryan Serkis📖 🖊🔑 (@twobitidiot) January 6, 2022
Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs analyst Zach Pandl wrote that if Bitcoin continues to take market share from gold, it could reach $100,000.
Bitcoin has been singing the tune of the stock market recently, and the 100-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index is now 0.44. This is the highest reading since the fourth quarter of 2020. A coefficient of 1 means that the assets are moving simultaneously, while a negative 1 means that they are moving in the opposite direction.
“Since this stimulus will become less adequate sooner than the market thinks, it makes sense for these assets to fall together,” Marley said.
Lindsey Bell, Ally’s chief market and currency strategist, said that due to the uncertainty of the Fed’s policy path, investors are already very nervous entering this year.
“People are reassessing the risks they want to take,” she said by phone. The strength of the U.S. dollar also does not help. This reminds cryptocurrency investors that it is “still a world currency, still very strong, and will not go anywhere, so you don’t need to hide your money under the mattress or in cryptocurrency.”
Greg Bassuk, CEO of AXS Investments, an asset management company focused on alternative investments, stated that Bitcoin should form part of an investor’s portfolio.
In an interview, he said: “We are very optimistic about Bitcoin and digital assets, and eliminate all noise day by day.” “In the next few years, digital assets will be like commodities, stocks and bonds, real estate and other more traditional assets. The categories are treated the same for a long time.”
——With the assistance of Rwanda.