Climate change for 8 billion people-a global problem

Source: United Nations Population Division.
  • View Joseph ChamiePortland, U.S.)
  • International news agency

Government leaders in COP26For example, it has not solved the problem of restricting global demand for energy, water, food, housing, land, resources, materials, machinery, transportation, etc. populationIn general, officials and their economic advisers are not prepared to admit that population stability and population decline are basic To deal with climate change.

and, many countriesIncluding Canada, China, EU member states, Iran, Israel, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States, continue to promote further growth in their population.For example, China has changed from the one-child policy to Three-child policy Increase its population by more than 1.4 billion.

Russia has taken a series of measures policy Increase its low birth rate, including Reproductive capital program, Fertility day, Provide state subsidies for new mothers, provide welfare for families with young children, and provide tax relief for extended families.The U.S. relies heavily on immigration, more than one million Immigrate every year to increase its population, which is expected to reach 400000000 By the middle of the last century.

The goal of most EU member states is not to emigrate, but to increase the population by raising the fertility rate below replacement levels.Emotions in many parts of Europe are reflected in Germany poster Say: “Wir können unsere eigenen Babys machen, wir brauchen keine Ausländer” (we can have children by ourselves, we don’t need foreigners).Especially Hungary, where be opposed to Immigrants and foreigners, its policies, plans and financial incentives aimed at helping Hungarians are straightforward All babies They want.

In addition, Iran recently adopted a bill This limits the free distribution of sterilizations, abortions and contraceptives in the public health care system, unless pregnancy threatens the health of women, all of which are aimed at increasing their birth rate and increasing their population of 85 million Tens of millions In the next few decades.with Israel Promoting the population growth of its Jewish population and the expansion of settlements as a prerequisite for security and economic development, its current population of 8.7 million may increase to 1500 dollars By 2050.

For most of human history, population growth has been relatively slow. The rapid growth of the world’s population has only recently appeared, mainly in the second half of the 20th century, and its growth rate and population growth rate have both set records. The world population reached 1 billion around 1804, doubled in 1927 to 2 billion, doubled again in 1974 to 4 billion, and will double again to 8 billion by 2023 (Figure 1).

Source: United Nations Population Division.

The 10 billion mark of the world’s population is expected to occur around the middle of this century, with most of the growth occurring in less developed countries.Africa’s current population For example, it is about 1.4 billion, which is expected to double to 2.8 billion by 2056. It is particularly noteworthy that Nigeria’s population has increased more than five times in the past 70 years and is expected to double again, reaching 423 million by the middle of this century, and replacing the United States as the world’s third largest population.

It is time to end this scam and acknowledge the catastrophic consequences of climate change in a world of 8 billion people. For example, based on the performance so far, Brazil, China, the European Union, India, Japan, Russia, and the United States—the seven major greenhouse gas emitters—account for nearly two-thirds of global emissions and half of global emissions. Population, the world is unlikely to achieve the goals needed to deal with climate change, and it is unlikely to effectively deal with environmental degradation and biodiversity loss (Figure 2).

Source: Climate and Energy Solutions Center.

Per capita comparisons of major countries provide more insight into greenhouse gas emissions. In 2018, the world’s average per capita carbon dioxide equivalent was about 6 tons, while the United States and Russia had the highest per capita carbon dioxide equivalent levels, 19 tons and 18 tons, respectively. The per capita levels of global billionaires plus populations in China and India are much lower, about 8 and 2 respectively (Figure 3).

Source: Climate and Energy Solutions Center.

The world seems unlikely Global goal In 2015, 196 parties passed a legally binding international climate change treaty, this Paris Agreement, Limit global warmingMuch lower than 2, preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius, Compared with the pre-industrial level. In addition, in order to maintain a livable climate on the earth, it is impossible for the international community to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by zero before 2050.

Although it is generally recognized that climate change is a global emergency, the international national system is fail To deal with this challenge and related global problems caused by national ambitions.In order to effectively solve this failure, some people think that the new worldview Planetary politics Call for the designation of the survival of the biosphere as an international goal relevant to all countries. However, the shift from the primacy of national sovereignty to the planetary approach seems unlikely anytime soon.

An important response of the population to climate change is Human migration, Domestic and international. People are migrating more and more to escape the catastrophic consequences of climate change, including rising sea levels, prolonged droughts, intense heat, air pollution, devastating floods, raging wildfires and violent storms.

This planet is almost guaranteed to see 5 feet rise in sea level In the next few decades.This rise in particular threatens no less than a dozen Island country, Including Fiji, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Seychelles, Solomon Islands and Tuvalu.In addition, by the end of this century approximately 50% Of the world’s population will live in coastal areas vulnerable to storms, tsunamis and floods.

In addition, being exposed to extreme heat, three times From 1983 to 2016, it now affects about a quarter of the world’s population.The longer and hotter heat wave has become Routine function Climate change.Low-income communities, especially in developing countries, are the most vulnerable Two thirds Of global households cannot use air conditioners.

The government needs to decide how best to solve the population problem caused by the climate Shift, This has become a reality million worldwide.In the next few decades, dozens of million The “climate migrants” are expected to be displaced due to extreme heat, drought, sea level rise, or other severe climate events within and between countries. Some Call on the UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights and Climate Change.

Other expected population responses to climate change are reduced fertility and increased morbidity and mortality.For example, hot weather can worsen reproductive health and maternal health result And lead to later Birth rate And endanger the survival of the baby.

In addition, climate change is considered the greatest Health threat Facing 8 billion people around the world.It is expected that changes in the earth’s climate will have serious consequences for society, economy and the environment determining factors Health includes air, water, food, and shelter.

WHO According to the report, between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause 250,000 deaths each year due to malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea and heat stress.In addition, others estimate that global warming may lead to more than 80 million People for the rest of this century.

Whenever discussing, writing, or mentioning climate change, governments can no longer ignore or ignore the population growth of each country. In climate change negotiations, we must take seriously this planet with 8 billion people and still growing.

In short, population stability and degradation are essential to limit the growing population’s demand for energy, water, food, land, resources, housing, heating/cooling, transportation, material products, etc., which are responsible for the planet. Climate change, environmental degradation and biodiversity loss.

Joseph Charmi Is a consulting demographer, former director of the UN Population Division, and author of many publications on population issues, including his most recent book, “Births, deaths, migration and other important demographic issues.”

© Inter Press Service (2021) — All rights reservedOriginal source: International News Service

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